During the raw material debate Invest Cuffs, the famous investor Cezary Głuch (Trader21) stated that the current crude oil prices are not the result of the war in Ukraine. It pointed to inflation and the fact that in history oil has risen to almost $ 150. However, other members of the debate emphasized that this influence was clearly visible.
Expensive oil is not the result of Putin’s war
– Go back a bit in time, 2011-2014. We had oil ranging between 100 and 110 for roughly three or four years. Was something going on? Not. Later Russia attacked Ukraine, they entered the Crimea and oil fell to $ 30. Why? Suddenly the whole world started producing 2/3 times more oil? Not. A speculative attack on oil prices was launched to deprive Russia of income. – pointed out Cezary Głuch (Trader21) during the Invest Cuffs 2022 conference. – Later from 30 dollars it goes to 60.70.80. Before Ukraine, how much did we have? About a hundred. This is how to justify a 3-fold increase. The laws of supply and demand do not work here. The main effect of having oil for $ 100 today, not just $ 38 in 2015, is inflation. There is this and no other dollar exchange rate. And in my opinion, we are looking at prices too short. – he also added. As explained by Trader21, during the Invest Cuffs 2022 debate, in 2008 crude oil prices reached $ 150 per barrel at one point. However, it should be remembered that over the years prices have clearly changed and the purchasing power of a single dollar has decreased. This means that the price of $ 150 in 2008 would be much higher at today’s prices.
DM BOŚ analyst points to the impact of the fighting
– Everything that has happened recently on the raw material gutters is the result of one, but very important event. And it still dominates the situation on the raw material market. I think it will dominate not only in the coming weeks, but even in the coming months. Of course, crude oil became such a spotlight of investors at that time, because in fact this marked increase in oil prices was a direct result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. – points out Dorota Sierakowska, Raw Material Analyst at DM BOŚ. – I think that in the coming weeks or months this tongue of attention will probably shift to many other raw materials and goods. So it’s interesting and I think it will stay interesting for a long time in the commodity market. – she also added during the participation in the Invest Cuffs 2022 debate. As you can see, not all participants of the debate shared the position of Trader21. The opposition was, for example, Michał Stajniak (Deputy Director of the Analysis Department at XTB), who pointed out that long-term trends are related to the demand and supply of raw material on the market. It is worth adding that Łukasz Zrembik (Manager of the Analyzes Department at TMS Brokers) and Bogusław Kasowski (Individual investor and raw material market expert) also voiced their votes in the event.
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