The most important economic data this week is the official US employment report, which will be released next Friday. The market consensus points to an increase of the NFP by 750k. in August, although CIBC analysts have a more optimistic forecast at the level of 900,000. In turn, experts from DBS Bank believe that the US dollar index will rise above 93 after a strong NFP report.
Employment remained high in August, which signals a further decline in the number of unemployed
Higher wages and recruiting efforts likely contributed to the net increase of 900,000 jobs. jobs in the USA
Job growth will focus on services that have reopened, which could bring the unemployment rate down to 5.2%
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Dollar Exchange Rate (USD): Solid NFP Will Seal Tapering And Greenback Rally
As analysts from XTB note, the market consensus indicates that the change in employment for August amounted to as much as 750,000. when reading 943 thousand. for July, which was the highest reading since August last year, when employment increased by almost 1.5 million people. Private employment is to increase by 665,000, while in industry by 25,000. Wages are to maintain the growth dynamics at the level of 4.0% y / y, and the unemployment rate is to drop to 5.2% from 5.4% (3.5% in March 2020).
USA: NFP expectations were lowered after ISM-Wells Fargo report
– Difficulty finding labor in August is a warning signal that Friday’s NFP report is unlikely to receive much help from production wages, and the lack of manpower remains a challenge for wider employment. Therefore, we reduced our NFP forecast to the level of 750,000. – wrote in the report.
NFP: Hiring may be a bit stronger than consensus expectations – CIBC
– It seems that employment remained high in August, which signals a further decline in the number of unemployed. Higher wages and recruiting efforts likely contributed to the net increase of 900,000 jobs. jobs – indicated in the report. Job growth will focus on services that have reopened, while state and local governments have been able to further increase workforce using recently received federal funding. According to experts, a significant increase in the number of jobs may cause the unemployment rate to fall to 5.2%, even with an increase in the share in the labor force. Wage growth may have fallen to 0.3%, which would reflect the ongoing labor shortage. Even our projected employment growth would leave almost 5 million fewer Americans employed than before the lockdown last year. Unemployment subsidies are in effect in many major states until early September, added.
The US dollar index will rise above 93 after strong report by NFP – DBS Bank
Friday’s US employment report is expected to show 750,000 jobs. posts created in August. Economists from DBS Bank expect the US dollar index (DXY) to break above 93 with strong data. DXY is currently hovering around 92.30. – Unless there is a big disappointment like April’s NFP, the DXY index is unlikely to fall below 92 this week. Conversely, a stronger employment report may also propel DXY above 93. In the short term, our models do not show a strong trend, concluded.
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